You, I and Us: The politics of birth

by Devadas Krishnadas
Source: TODAYONLINE, Aug 23, 2012

Mr Lee Kuan Yew recently commented that Singapore would "fold up" if we did not raise the birth rate.

Mr Lee's remarks were made against the backdrop of an announcement that the Government would conduct another review of the Marriage and Procreation policy.

First off, whatever value judgments Singaporeans may make about his interpretation, no one can argue with the demographic facts.

We do have an abysmal birth rate, consequently we are dependent on population augmentation, and this does have undesirable and uncomfortable consequences; but if we do not reverse the first and if we reject the second, we will face population decline within a generation. There should be no dispute here.

Predictably, however, Mr Lee's point of view provoked a volley of comments from Singaporeans. I have categorised the protestations into three buckets.


POINTING FINGERS

The first bucket contains two strands of criticisms. One, that the Government is being hypocritical because of the culpability of its "stop at two" policy in causing the low birth rates.

Proponents of this view do not dispute the legitimacy of the argument that the birth rate needs to increase, but absolve themselves of the responsibility of doing anything about it because they view themselves as victims of a past policy decision.

The second criticism is that the Government's emphasis on growth has shaped a mental model of prioritising careers over family. The proponents of this school of thinking are convinced that if the Government reduces the priority it places on economic growth, the problem would remedy itself over time.

The second bucket is made up of the interesting critique that the exhortation to increase the birth rate constitutes an intrusion into the private space of individuals.

Quite rightly, birth is an intimate and personal decision. But it is a logical stretch to use this truism as a basis to detect an authoritarian intent to conscript the bodies of women to the national cause. This school of thinking perceives the case for individual autonomy as trumping any call for collective burden sharing. Although not fully embracing the idea of population augmentation, the proponents of this view, by logical default, accept it as a necessary evil.

While not offering any solutions, this view does move the discussion beyond finger pointing to the tensions between individual choice and national interest.

The third bucket of criticism is from those who feel that high costs and inequality are the impediments to procreation. They call for a more redistributive social model as a response, not only to falling birth rates but also to close the inequality gap.

The virtuous amongst this group even preemptively volunteer to pay higher taxes. Only proponents of this perspective recognise the systemic nature of the problem and propose a systemic response. Now let us take a closer look at these buckets.


THE 'YOU' PEOPLE

I think of the first bucket as the "You" people. "You", because their criticisms typically commence with that word, meaning the Government or some Minister of the same. However sincere the motivating angst, there are several problems with the case of the "You" people.

First, even if and where policy was misjudged, was there malicious intent and what effect did the policy really have? The "stop at two" policy was driven out of a fear that the population was growing faster than economically viable. It reflects the sober and conservative expectations for future economic performance in the midst of the global economic shocks of the 1970s.

It is hardly fair to indict past decision makers with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight. Did the policy makers in the past miscalculate? Perhaps, but not in the way the "you" people think.

A close study of the correlations between our birth rates and level of economic development reveals that we followed a well-established pattern of inverse correlation.

In other words, even without the "stop at two" policy, we should have expected to see the birth rate fall as it did, as we became more affluent and our people, particularly women, became better educated. So the argument for policy hypocrisy is debatable.

Second, the view that the emphasis on growth is a major causation is a weak argument. It is too much to suggest that an economy of our size and nature can function independently of global economic events.

Quite the opposite, we are almost wholly dependent on these events to dictate our economic performance.

The Government can only use policy to best position our economy for growth and to cushion it when growth is absent. Notions such as "growth calibration" are misguided. (A more valid criticism within this bucket is that the Government has been quick to credit itself for growth but attributes to global conditions the causation for its lack.)

Further, this bucket presents a too simplistic picture which casts the Government in the role of the antagonist while the people are cast as helpless victims absolved of responsibility for their future.

Perhaps the most limiting quality of this bucket is that it offers no ideas on what to do next. So while the "you" bucket makes the most noise in social media, it is probably because it conforms to the old axiom about empty vessels.


THE 'I' PEOPLE

The "I" people, in the second bucket, think about themselves as almost wholly distinct from the collective.

Admittedly, the tension point between individual and the collective space would seem an important determination. But while no one can deny that the decision to procreate is a personal one, this does not make it mutually exclusive with a discussion of aggregate procreation.

The State cannot force the individual course in the matter of procreation. What is clear, after more than a decade of affirmative policy action, is that promoting procreation with targeted policies has proved to be spectacularly ineffective.

We have also reason to suspect that the targeted policies to limit procreation were probably less effectual than is commonly assumed.


THE 'US' PEOPLE

The third bucket is composed of the "Us" people, those who believe in social models having determinative power over individual action. Of all the buckets, only the "Us" people think in system terms.

Their main idea is that a different social safety net model would influence personal behaviour. There have been many eloquent advocates in favour of changing to a "Nordic" model characterised by higher taxation, a more interventionist and deliberate redistributive model and greater State presence in the social space.

The motivations for promoting such advocacy range from a desire for less inequality, more inclusiveness and belief that if the costs of child rearing were socialised, then the individual proclivities could be positively influenced in favour of procreation.

The problem is that we will never know for sure whether moving in this direction will work until we try it. But trying it has a very long tail, for we will need at least a generation to judge the effects.

The fiscal costs of the "Nordic" model should not be underestimated. But neither should these cost projections be considered sufficient argument not to go in this direction. The matter is ultimately not one of whether we can afford it, but whether we want to afford it. What is required is a deliberate, protracted and participatory discussion as to the full meaning and potential implications of such a systemic move.

Given the importance of the issue, the conversation should take place over a substantial period of public and parliamentary debate which should include as many voices as possible. The general public and civic groups should activate themselves to participate as stakeholders in Singapore society. There need not be a rush to consensus, we should take the time to get this right.


PATH TO PROGRESS

We need to move the debate forward, and out of the state of policy stasis. All parties should be open to possible different futures. How do we do this?

First: Confront the facts.

Second: Distinguish between the fatuous and the fair criticisms.

Third: Recognise that targeted policies have not worked, thus leaving us with the implication that only a systemic adjustment would be of the scale and dimension to match the nature of the problem.

Fourth: Accept that individual choices have a collectivised expression, but also that a collectivised decision may well ultimately stand the best chance of influencing individual choice.

Fifth: The process of arriving at a decision on a social model is important to the legitimacy of that decision. And by social model, I mean more than a system of redistribution but also a reconsideration of traditional notions of family and the legitimacy of single mothers. A mark of social maturity is the acceptance that while one may not adopt, or even approve, a social choice, this does not give us the right to deny that choice to another.

It is an unsettling truth that we will not, for a long time, be certain of the outcome of any decision to change. But this should be contrasted with the more disturbing certainty of knowing the result of continuing as we are.

We need to enter into a national conversation about the kind of future we want, and commit ourselves to the price to be paid for the choice that we as a people make, and which the Government then should implement, not the other way around.


Devadas Krishnadas is Director and Principal Consultant for Future-Moves, a foresight consultancy. He has extensive policy and operational public sector experience in Singapore and, as a Fulbright Scholar, read for a Masters of Law and Diplomacy at the Fletcher School, Tufts University.

 

S'poreans respond to LKY's comments on birth rate

Source: Todayonline   Aug 13, 2012

 

Former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew's comments that Singapore would face "enormous" problems if Singaporeans do not procreate have sparked a debate on TODAY's Facebook page. Here are excerpts of the various viewpoints (40 comments as at press time) .

Right off the bat, Mr Wong Teng and Mr Ian Cornelius Lai wondered if the "Stop at Two" policy, launched in the 1960s when Mr Lee was PM, was the root of today's low birth rates.

This drew rebuttals from two other readers. As Mr Ngan Swee Heng put it, "This policy was discontinued in the 1980s; it is now 2012!" And even if it were still in place, he argued, many married couples today "have not even begun at one".

He found support from Mr Terence Tan, who asked: "If everyone still stops at two ... how would there be a low fertility rate?" Last year's figures were 1.08 for the Chinese, 1.09 for Indians and 1.64 for Malays.


Affordability

It did not take long for the affordability issue to then be raised. "Who's going to address that?" asked Mr Billy Soh.

Others had a different perspective. Ms Audrey Soo wrote, "Children are not unaffordable; it's our wants that are." Mr Rosman Ahmad added in agreement, "Children are a blessing, not a burden. We should live within our means and keep our expectations achievable."

But Mr Soh persisted and called for the economic model "to be re-examined", while Mr Troy Parry went further to question if the economy "needs to keep growing". 

"There's a limit to everything, especially on this small island. The only reason why I see a need to keep the fertility rate high is the aging population ... Who'll replace (the baby boomers)? And who'll look after them?" wrote the latter.

On this issue, Mr Tan urged discussants to see that "we need to be an economic power for other countries to respect us". "We're nothing without any natural resources. What will we do without economic success?" he posted.


Then and now


To those like Mr Ben Oh, who maintained that he would not mind having more children if he was rich, Mr Ngan made a comparison to the past.

"My parents had four children, and my wife's parents had eight children. I have two children. I believe it was tougher for my parents and my wife's parents to bring up their children than it was for me and my wife," he said.

"Money is important, but not all-important. Otherwise ... poor people like me would be childless."

Joining in the conversation, Mr Danny Seow distinguished between having more children and having them all be "equally successful", which requires two ingredients: "Time and money ... it's difficult to balance and achieve both in our society today."

Points and counterpoints came fast and furious here. "If children don't possess good morals or are filial ... what's success?" wrote Mr Tan. "Even if their children aren't successful, (parents) would be glad if their children grow up to be good people."

Mr Seow's reply: "Expectations of success change. Seeing your children grow up to have good values are indeed fulfilling, but seeing them suffer from stress, emotional instability due to economic uncertainty/burden is as painful.

"(Today), to even have the 'opportunity' to live comfortably requires investment in education. Definitely, children have to work and persevere on their own ... but when will you inculcate such values? My bet is in their earlier childhood days."

Who is responsible?

In his comments at his constituency's National Day dinner, Mr Lee also noted that "we cannot have new citizens, new permanent residents to settle our social ethos, our social spirit, our social norms".

In his post, Mr Leonard Lim wondered, "It's a bit late to say that now, isn't it, when all of you were the ones who brought in the influx of new citizens to begin with?"

But in another rebuttal, Mr Ngan wrote, "If Singapore survives the next 30 years ... will (our descendants) be proud of those among us who whined and blamed everybody except ourselves, instead of taking responsibility for our own shortcomings and selfishness?

"Having children in Singapore isn't easy, but it can be done, and it's well worth doing, not just for the country but for ourselves."

Having a child - it's all in the mind

Source: The Straits times  30 Jul 2012

NO AMOUNT of baby bonuses or increased maternity or paternity leave can encourage couples to have children ("Stress of raising children discourages pregnancies" by Dr Tham Meng Keat; last Thursday).

The fear of not knowing how to handle a newborn baby may be one reason why couples decide not to have children. Having to give up one's carefree and lavish lifestyle is another.

Apart from these, finding reliable caregivers to look after our children in their growing years and the prospect of having to give up our careers are other reasons.

Then, there is the issue of money. Will there be enough to raise a child or two?

Education is yet another concern. Will our children be able to cope with the demands of school? What about finding places in reputable primary schools? Can they earn degrees and land themselves well-paying jobs?

Children can bring great joy to a couple's life. A happy family need not be one that lives in a big house, with parents bringing home big pay packets, and children excelling academically.

Maybe if we change our mindsets about what a happy family should be, then we can be encouraged to start one "bravely".

Geraldine Khong (Madam)

More well-educated women having abortions

Reading The Sunday Times news special on abortion ("Up for foreigners, down for S'poreans"), the one story that caught my eyes was related by a doctor who said he had a patient, a banking professional in her 30s, who ended her second pregnancy so she could retire at 45 as planned. He said she figured she would have to put off retirement by 10 years to maintain the same standard of living if she had the baby.

Askmelah is speechless and feel like jumping off the cliff. This is the epitome of selfishness at its crudest form to achieve one's dream of retiring early by killing a life! Such is the morale decay in the new generation as a result of our affluence.

The parallels of Japan and Singapore low fertility rate

Reading the article "Three reasons Japan's pain is getting worse" by Jared Diamond (Todayonline 27 Arp 2012), where the first part of the article attempts to explain the low fertilit rate in Japan, one can be forgiven that he is talking about Singapore as the reasons for the low fertility rate in both countries are uncanningly similar, here is an extract:

"They report that most single adult Japanese still live with their parents, because it is comfortable to live at home and expensive to leave.

Young Japanese feel more comfortable communicating with each other electronically than by phone or in person. "Over the years that the formerly widespread practice of arranged marriage almost completely disappeared", one person explained to me, "the digital revolution made it increasingly difficult for Japanese to develop the social skills necessary to woo a potential spouse themselves."

Among men, the biggest reasons given for not marrying are worries about their economic future and their ability to bear the responsibility for a family.

Married women tend to manage the household finances and take care of both their own and their husbands' parents, and many of them now swear they will be the last generation to be saddled with those burdens.

Career women, who find strength in their education, jobs and earning power, are capable of supporting themselves in the style to which they aspire, and are buying condominiums and planning for their own retirements. If they do want to marry, they find that their age is an obstacle, because Japanese men over the age of 40 want much younger women.

If they do want children, Japanese societal support for working mothers is low. Hence they either forgo children, or leave the workforce or even leave Japan, and that represents a big loss of human capital for the country."

Just the two of us (More married couples not having babies)

Source: The Straits Times 15 April 2012

More married couples not having children; women in study cite financial constraints, careers as reasons

 

The ranks of married Singaporeans remaining childless have grown in the past decade and a small-scale study has shed some light on why some women have chosen not to procreate.

In 2010, 20.5 per cent of ever-married female citizens in the 30 to 39 age group were childless - and that is a significant jump from the 13.2 per cent in 2000, said demographer Gavin Jones.

By the end of their child-bearing years, the proportion of married women in their 40s who are childless has also risen in the past decade, although not as sharply as those in their 30s, he noted.

In 2010, 8.6 per cent of ever-married female citizens in the 40 to 49 age group were childless - up from 6 per cent in 2000. Ever-married refers to those currently married, divorced or widowed.

The latest Census data suggests that more married Singaporeans were not having babies, said Professor Jones of the Asia Research Institute. The figure includes women who want children but are infertile.

This trend is a headache for policymakers struggling to boost Singapore's shrinking birth rates.

But not all women who have decided against motherhood are doing so because they do not want children, according to an in-depth study of 16 married Chinese Singaporean women who have chosen not to have babies.

For the eight women without degrees and earning an average monthly pay of $2,350, the most commonly cited reason for being childless is a lack of money. Most said they desire children but feel that they cannot afford to raise a child in costly and highly competitive Singapore.

The top reason against babies for university-educated women who take home an average monthly pay of $6,250 is that they feel they cannot juggle motherhood and a job, and are unwilling to sacrifice their career prospects.

The qualitative study is the first published research examining why Chinese Singaporean women consciously choose not to have children, Nanyang Technological University sociology professor Caroline Pluss, 48, told The Sunday Times.

Her former student Amanda Ee, 25, and Hong Kong sociologist Chan Kwok-bun, 62, also authored the study. It will be published in Springer's International Handbook of Chinese Families later this year.

The study, while not representative of Singapore's population, provides a 'unique insight' into a phenomenon not openly discussed or well understood, said Professor Pluss, who has a young son.

Its sample size is small given that married women who choose not to have children are in the minority and it is hard to get them to open up. Qualitative studies also usually involve a small number of people.

In fact, most women interviewed preferred to keep mum about their decisions not to have children, as it is considered a deviant attitude in family-friendly Singapore, said Miss Ee, who is single. All the women had to persuade their husbands not to have children.

The university-educated women did not see the need for children to complete their families, she added, even though society usually defines a family as a couple with children.

Aside from financial constraints, the less-educated women also said they were deterred by the lack of reliable help in raising children, such as from parents.

Both groups of women were loath to give up their time and freedom, and anticipated that their husbands would not do their share in caring for Junior.

Jane, a 32-year-old graduate and business development officer who was not involved in the study, said that she and her bank employee husband of three years do not want children because it means a lifetime of having to worry about everything from care to getting them into good schools.

Jane, who has a master's degree and declined to give her full name, said: 'It's too much trouble. I don't think having kids are worth it. There's just too much to think about.'